The debate over the value of a coveted straight All-Ireland semi-final spot versus the significance of Leinster silverware is a topic of ongoing discussion.
Kilkenny players defeated Dublin in the Leinster final which granted the Cats a four-week rest between matches, however, Clare who lost the Munster final played Wexford only two weeks ago. So is the rest more valuable or the game?
Statistically, does qualifying directly for a semi-final increase the chances of making it to the final? Let’s examine Kilkenny’s record since their last All-Ireland win in 2015 to explore this question.
Kilkenny’s Performance Post-2015
Since 2015, Kilkenny has advanced directly to the semi-finals on seven occasions:
- 2023: Reached the semi-final, defeated Clare, but lost to Limerick in the final.
- 2022: Reached the semi-final, defeated Clare, but lost to Limerick in the final.
- 2021: Lost to Cork after extra time in the semi-final.
- 2020: Lost to Waterford in the semi-final.
- 2018: Lost to Limerick in the semi-final.
- 2016: Reached the final after defeating Waterford in the semi-final but lost to Tipperary.
- 2015: Reached the final and won the All-Ireland.
Contrastingly, there were two years when Kilkenny did not qualify directly for the semi-final:
- 2019: Advanced to the quarter-final, defeated Cork, then beat Limerick in the semi-final but ultimately lost in the final.
- 2017: Failed to reach the Leinster final, entered the preliminary series, and lost to Waterford after extra time.
Analyzing the Statistics
A closer look at the data reveals that directly qualifying for the semi-finals has not consistently guaranteed better outcomes for Kilkenny:
- Semi-Final Direct Qualification:
- Qualified seven times
- Reached the final four times, winning once (2015)
- Lost in the semi-final three times
- Non-Direct Qualification:
- Advanced to the final once (2019) after winning both the quarter-final and semi-final
- Eliminated in the preliminary series once (2017)
Conclusion
From the data, it’s evident that a direct route to the semi-final does not necessarily translate to a higher success rate for Kilkenny. While it can provide a strategic advantage by reducing the number of matches played, Kilkenny’s mixed results suggest that the path to the final can be fraught with challenges regardless of the route taken. In recent years, their success rate appears relatively consistent whether they qualify directly or not.
In summary, while the allure of a straight semi-final spot is undeniable, its impact on Kilkenny’s ultimate success has been variable. The team’s performance in crucial knockout matches seems to hinge more on form and execution on the day rather than the path taken to reach those stages.
